Tuesday, a band of terrorists laid an ambush for President Muhammadu Buhari on his way to Daura for holiday. The President’s advanced convoy was corralled. Before the smokes from that gunbattle simmered, another terrorist attack was reported Wednesday morning. Hoodlums raided a huge prison hold in Kuje, freeing hundreds of criminals serving time. The mean men had a field day reuniting with their killer-partners slammed in the calaboose. That is the terrorised life Nigerians live today. When bandits strike on a nation’s presidential convoy anywhere around the world; it’s proof that terrorists hold sway in the country. With all of Buhari’s mouthing about keeping Nigerians safe, and his rambling rhetoric and empty threats hauled at those making Nigeria unlivable, it is certain that this retired Army General has lost grip of Nigeria’s security. Horror stories of terrorism have engulfed our nation. Nigerians are living in misery without food, money, and hopes for tomorrow. Many think the country can implode any minute. God forbid.
Political permutations about who becomes the next carrier of Nigeria’s nagging migraine headaches are running feverishly rackety. Who will that be? I leave the brawls and battles to the frenetic adherents of major candidates who have already turned the social media space into an Armageddon of brutal brabble and quibbles. Except God pulls a shocking one from His breath of the miraculous, one of these men-Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Abubakar Atiku, or Peter Obi, will become President. I begin with the ruling party’s standard bearer.
APC remaining in power at the centre in this election cycle may be a tall order. How does Tinubu pull it off without distancing himself from Buhari and his tales of woes? How does he disabuse the minds of Nigerians who believe that he is wealth-amassing, money-mongering, and uncannily-controlling of human beings in states his appointed men reign as governors? How does Jagaban shake off the health debate that his limbs are too weak, his heart too fluttering, and his grips are unsteady even when drinking a pint-size bottled water? These are concerns for Nigerians. As of today, however, Tinubu is the front-runner in this marathon dash for power. He has the money, the men, the mind, and strategies to get what he wants. Don’t joke with a man who believes that he is ordained by God to strap on the presidential crown this time. Tinubu told Nigerians that this is his time and turn. “E gbe kinni yi wa; EMI LO KAN”. Unfortunately, in a democracy, victory is not turn-by-turn. It is an all-out, tough-and-rough fight convincing people you are their help in times of trouble. Who dares say Tinubu has not paid his dues in political fight arenas? He has fought many power bases, over many issues, and over many decades on Nigeria’s tough political terrain. Tinubu can fight. The battle line is now drawn between him and human machineries set in dark places trying to ensure that he does not become President. But in this cycle, Tinubu is one of the favorites to become President. But how does he pull it off with his party’s dismal and terrible rule where Nigerians aren’t safe in their own home and Nigerians dying of hunger?
I also don’t know how PDP can return to the centre with its horrible testimonies that have not faded in Nigerians memories. Many believe that the foundation of the agony Nigerians suffer today was laid by the corrupt hands of PDP men and women. In 2013, Nigeria’s external reserves dipped from $47 billion to $29 billion in 2015 straight through the conduits of corruption. Savings depleted from $21 billion in 2010 to $2 billion in 2015. PDP’s Federal Government borrowed $2 billion to pay salaries in that season of Nigeria’s life.  In May 2011, Nigeria’s debt was N2.5trn and oil price was $110 per barrel; and by May 2015 debt had risen to N12trn even with more revenue. Under the PDP watch, the American Government found out that about $9bn was stolen by fifty people. Abubakar Atiku, the party’s chaperon in next year’s election has a baggage load of malfeasances and infractions that I don’t have the writing privilege to rerun in a thirteen-hundred-word treatise. Like Tinubu, the Waziri of Adamawa is one of the favourites to win next year’s election. But how does he pull it off?
Peter Obi once sat in Anambra State Governor’s office. He too wants to be President. Surprisingly to many, Obi’s profile is rising in charms and chimes. His followership is increasing. New converts drawn to his gospel are swelling in size. His tub-thumpers are from everywhere. They are Yorubas, Igbos, and all. And they are young. Obi is making forays into unexpected cohorts. A lot of adherents of VP Yemi Osinbajo who lost in the APC primaries seem to have found a home in Obi’s tent. He is younger than all the major candidates. He talks populist economic sense. What he talks about appeals to ordinary Nigerians. He, too, is a favourite in this run. But if Obi will shock the system, he needs to rejigger in a few areas.
One, he must not listen to those who tell him he doesn’t need a structure. He does. Structure is a requisite process to success in business and life. It is like a drawn plan before you build a house. Obi will need a structure made of steel to war against an Atiku or Tinubu. Both men can boast of octopuses of long-standing structures.
Two, Obi must also quit hyperboles. He is preaching to a hungry and angry choir of Nigerians. Just like Tinubu and Atiku, Obi is an accomplished fella. He doesn’t need to exaggerate his testaments.
Three, Obi should also find a way not to allow his loyalists brand his run an Igbo project, but a Nigerian business. He has to win in other regions to become President. Between now and February 2023, he’s got to convince a lot more educated young and middle-aged Nigerians. He must make inroads into Gombe, Sokoto, Kano, Kogi, Nasarawa, Bauchi, Borno, Kebbi, Jigawa, and at least two-thirds of the Northern voting space. He must figure out how to do this in seven months.
Four, Obi should educate his supporters that verbal abuses and diatribes on opposing voices don’t make good friends. They turn people off. You may hear some of those vile voices after reading this article. There are very many people who are open to listening to Obi. Millions of Nigerians are sick-and-tired of status quo politics and politicians. Millions don’t care where their pPesident comes from or what God he worships. Irate and rabid supporters many times shut the valves of support and friendship. It may be a long shot, but Obi has a chance. I’m watching how he will pull it off.
We all know that nothing else is presently in Nigerian politicians’ fervid focus but 2023. Nine months away, the regime of the President, Maj.-Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, will end. Candidates are butting heads to succeed him. A roiling jostle for the control of Aso-Rock is ongoing. The unrelenting hankering for power among political groupies is loud. Movements have morphed into coalition of political assemblages. Talks to seize power and control of the central government continue behind closed doors as Nigeria treads a rough road ahead into the future. Who wins? Prognosticators may not be accurate. Political prophets will lie as usual. Consult your Ouija board. Consult your oracle. Let them speak in their tenebrific voices. What becomes of Nigeria is uncertain. Are you already dreaming that your man will be sworn-in as President? Quit dreaming! The road ahead will be rough. Who becomes President no one knows except God in heaven who alone rules in the affairs of men and nations.
