Another national coronavirus lockdown is a possibility and we have to do what we can to avoid that at all costs, a leading UK scientist has said.

Prof Peter Horby said the UK was at a “precarious point” as Covid-19 cases and hospital admissions continue to rise.

It comes after England’s deputy chief medical officer warned the country was at a “tipping point”.

Ministers say their local approach to restrictions is the right way forward.

The prime minister is expected to announce tougher local restrictions on Monday.

In a statement to MPs, Boris Johnson will outline plans for a three-tier system, where each region in England is placed into a tier based on the severity of cases in the area.

Later on Sunday, he will hold a call with cabinet ministers to update them on the next steps.

Across the UK, the R number – the average number of people each infected person passes the virus on to – is now estimated between 1.2 and 1.5. Anything above 1.0 means cases are increasing.

On Saturday, 15,166 people in the UK were reported to have tested positive for coronavirus – up 1,302 on Friday’s figure, according to the latest figures on the government’s dashboard. There were a further 81 deaths – a decrease of six on Friday.

Prof Horby, chair of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) and a government adviser, said the “critical mission” now was to protect the NHS to avoid all non-essential hospital services being cancelled, as they were when the UK went into its first nationwide lockdown in March.

“We really need to provide care to everybody – those with Covid and those without,” he said. “The way to do that is to keep the numbers down.”

He warned that some hospitals in the north of England were already coming under pressure and it might not be long before intensive care beds fill up.

“I am afraid we are going to have to make some very difficult choices and act very quickly,” he added.

Prof Horby said a surge in cases in the North was partly because people were coming into contact with more people than in other parts of the country.

He also told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show that in the months before the increase in cases, numbers had not dropped to as low a level in the North as in other parts of England.

Prof Horby said the country must accept more stringent measures to drive down transmission of the virus.

In an earlier statement, England’s deputy chief medical officer Prof Jonathan Van-Tam said the seasons were “against us” and the country was running into a “headwind” ahead of the winter months.

He warned more deaths would follow a rise in cases over coming weeks and urged people to limit social contact.

It is expected that parts of the north of England and the Midlands will be placed under tougher measures as part of the prime minister’s announcement.

In addition, Liverpool, where there are currently 600 cases per 100,000 people, is expected to be placed under the most severe set of restrictions, with all the city’s pubs forced to close. Many who frequent pubs and restaurants will be unable to do so.

Pubs and restaurants across the central belt of Scotland closed their doors for at least two weeks on Friday, to try to tackle a rise in cases.

Political leaders in the north of England fear harsher measures in their regions could damage local economies and leave some people struggling to survive.

They say Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s announcement – to pay two-thirds of workers’ wages for UK firms forced to close by law by coronavirus restrictions – is “insufficient”.

David Greenhalgh, Conservative leader of Bolton Council, said: “The North feels like they are being treated differently.

“We know our rates are high, we are not underestimating that, but we cannot throw our local economy to the wall. I urge government to respect that.

According to Lisa Mandy “It’s very clear that we do need further restrictions”. Shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy, who is also MP for Wigan, agreed further restrictions were needed but accused the government of treating people with contempt.

Moreover, “I haven’t felt anger like this since I was growing up in the 1980s. People feel that they haven’t just been abandoned, they now feel that the government is actively working against us.”

She said Labour would try to force a House of Commons vote on Mr Sunak’s plans “so there is an opportunity to put forward an alternative support package”.