Ahead of the inauguration of Bola Tinubu as the 16th President of Nigeria, Labour Party Presidential candidate, Peter Obi, who is challenging the All Progressives Congress candidate’s victory in the presidential poll in court, has again appealed to Nigerians to remain peaceful and law-abiding.
In the lengthy statement he released today, Obi noted that Nigeria remains our only patrimony and it is a patrimony we must protect, rather than violate.
He also that while there are efforts to taint his hard-earned image, he expects that the Nigerian judiciary will use the election cases to reaffirm its independence and integrity.
The statement reads;
“For all Nigerians, this is a time for deep reflection. It is also a time to re-examine our assumptions, even as we reaffirm our hopes. Let us calmly review our aspirations, in order to recalibrate our expectations and pin down the causes of our missed opportunities and disappointments. We stand at that critical moment in time when, as a people, we must collectively come to grips with the reality of our injured destiny as well as the reasons for that injury.
“It is for us to reassess our plight as a young democracy and identify clear pathways to a better and greater future for us all. As we await the verdict of the election tribunal, I urge all Nigerians to use this opportunity to renew their commitment to the Nigerian ideal. That ideal remains noble and worth every sacrifice we can make.
“Nigeria remains our only patrimony and it is a patrimony we must protect, rather than violate. We have no other nation but this, so let us remain committed to rescuing and rebuilding it.
“The judiciary is part of the democratic enterprise and a critical governance tool for determining the propriety of the decisions and actions of every citizen and every institution of state. To that extent, and for that reason, I urge everyone to treat it with the respect and dignity it deserves. We expect that the Nigerian judiciary will use the election cases now before it to reaffirm its independence and integrity. It has to do so, for all our sakes and for itself.
“Nigerians must, therefore, remain peaceful and law abiding. No matter the depth of anyone’s reservations about what is going on in the polity today, no matter the real and imagined provocations, and no matter the disagreement out there, we should remember that this will not last forever. I remain committed, and untiring, in my determination to work with like-minded fellow Nigerians to end the curse of missed opportunities and squandered hope that has become our lot here.
“I will never shrink from that original commitment, because I firmly believe that we must change from the present politics of criminality, and corruption, in order to make a new Nigeria possible. I call on fellow Nigerians, especially the youths to remain steadfast, calm, patient, and peaceful. Our journey may be long and difficult but it is worth it in every way. Victory is assured.
“We have to work together to move our beautiful country from corruption and criminality to a center of productivity rather than aimless consumption. I am aware of some evil designs being hatched against me and my supporters in the coming months. Efforts will be made to taint my image. Campaigns of calumny are being perfected to defame my character and diminish my hard-earned integrity.
“These schemes will aim at degrading our support base and confusing the public. But, no evil campaign will alter the substance of my character; nor diminish my patriotic commitment to a better Nigeria. It is about the future of our youths. it is about ending the Years of Locust. In all of this, I thank Nigerians, our great party (LP) and the media. The latter, as the Fourth Estate of the realm, has remained a trusted ally.
“This Estate must continue to guide our people on the immense promise of a future in a new Nigeria. God bless Nigeria and protect the troops keeping us safe in this season of vaulting insecurity. Long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria. -PO”
The Commissioner of Police in Ebonyi State, Faleye Olaleye has warned against any protest during and after the May 29 inauguration.
The commissioner in a statement released by the state’s police spokesperson, SP Onome Onovwakpoyeya, said they got an intelligence report that some individuals were planning protests over the outcome of the February 25 and March 18.
He said these individuals should wait for the court verdict.
He warned that the command would not condone a breakdown of law and order in the state.
The statement added;
“Those culpable will be arrested and made to face the full wrath of the law as police operatives have been deployed strategically and directed to ensure full enforcement.”
Yoruba Imams’ and Alfas’ in Northern Nigeria, on Saturday in Abuja, organised a special prayer session for a smooth handover and success for President-elect Bola Tinibu’s administration.
In his remarks, Abdurrafii Oyebode, leader of the group, said the event was organised for the successful tenure of the incoming administration.
“This group is also hoping to continue to pray for the peace of the nation and the success of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kashim Shettima’s administration,” he said.
Mr Oyebode said the group, which has Imams and scholars from the 19 northern states and the FCT, had been praying for Mr Tinubu since he emerged as APC’s candidate for the election due to his antecedent.
“My spiritual colleagues and I in the north are ardent supporters and followers of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu as we always appreciate his support to national growth and development,” he added.
He described Mr Tinubu as a detribalised Nigerian, always keen on pursuing social justice, fairness, equity and policies of national development.
He called on Nigerians to continue to pray and support the incoming administration while stressing the need for peace, unity and prosperity.
Earlier, Sheikh Ahmad Onilewura, one of the officiating Imams of the National Mosque, Abuja, emphasised the need for prayers for the nation.
He said the Muslim community would continue to work with relevant stakeholders for a peaceful and prosperous nation.
The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the event was attended by Islamic leaders, justices from the Sharia Court, scholars, and traditional rulers, among others.
The Presidential Election Petition Court has adjourned the pre-hearing of the petition against the President-elect Asiwaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu, by the Labour Party and its presidential candidate, Peter Obi to Friday, May 19.
Recall that Obi and the Labour Party are challenging the presidential election they claim was marred by irregularities and fraud.
Justice Haruna Tsammani adjourned the case to May 19 following the failure of parties in the petition to agree on documents among other issues.
Bola Tinubu, the president-elect, has asked his major contenders in the February 25 presidential election to seek legal redress in court if they are dissatisfied with his victory.
Mr Tinubu, the president-elect, said he was aware that it would be “hard put” for the candidates of the main opposition parties to accept the results.
“Still, I know some candidates will be hard put to accept the election results. It is your right to seek legal recourse. What is neither right nor defensible is for anybody to resort to violence.
Any challenge to the electoral outcome should be made in a court of law, and not in the streets,” Mr Tinubu said in his acceptance speech titled, ‘The Era of Renewed Hope’, delivered in the early hours of Thursday, shortly after being declared winner of the poll.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had in the early hours of today declared Mr Tinubu winner of the election after polling 8,794,726 votes to beat his closest rival of Atiku Abubakar of PDP, who scored 6,948,520 votes.
Peter Obi of Labour Party came third polling 5,101,533 votes while Rabiu Kwankwaso of NNPP came fourth with 1,496, 687 votes.
With the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Bola Tinubu, as the next President of Nigeria, the country will witness overwhelming transformation, the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), has assured.
He also expressed optimism that Tinubu’s presidency in 2023 would ensure that the nation moved ahead “from what has so far been achieved throughout the country in the last seven plus years.”
President Buhari, represented by the Minister of Communication and Digital Economy, Prof. Isa Ali Pantami, stated these when he visited the Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign Office in Gusau and expressed confidence in APC’s win in Zamfara in the coming 2023 general elections.
A statement signed by the APC Publicity Secretary in Zamfara State, Yusuf Idris Gusau, said the President also used the opportunity of the visit to attend the closing ceremony of this year’s Musabaka Qur’anic recitation competition hosted in the state.
He was conducted round by the coordinator of Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign Council in Zamfara State, Senator Kabiru Garba Marafa.
The statement said,
“He commended the arrangement put in place by the coordinator saying that the effort jointly put in place by Governor Bello Mohammed Matawalle, former governor Abdulaziz Yari Abubakar and Senator Kabiru Garba Marafa accounted for the rousing welcome his delegation received while in the state.
“He assured people of the state that with APC’s Tinubu as the next President, the nation will witness overwhelming transformation, moving ahead from what has so far been achieved throughout the country in the last seven plus years.
“The President thanked the people of Zamfara and all Nigerians for the support he has been enjoying in his leadership and urged Nigerians to continue to support the APC by ensuring its victory at all levels in the coming elections.”
Earlier while welcoming the President and his delegation, Governor Bello Matawalle informed him, “Zamfara is the home base of the APC whereby opposition parties seem non-existent.”
The governor who is also the North West Zonal Coordinator of the APC said that the choice of an experienced state campaign coordinator like Senator Marafa has added impetus to and eased his responsibilities as the zone’s coordinator in the state.
The camp of the All Progressives Congress Presidential Candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, on Friday disclosed that Ilorin, Kwara State capital in the North Central region of the country has been chosen as the official port to launch their campaign.
This was confirmed by one of the party’s bigwigs (name withheld) who also attended Wednesday’s tripartite meeting with the Progressive Governors Forum, Presidential Campaign Council and members of APC National Working Committee.
The source, one of Tinubu’s loyalists, told our correspondent that the presidential candidate and the stakeholders agreed on the North Central in general and Ilorin specifically.
The closed-door meeting, held for about three hours at Transcorp Hilton in Abuja, witnessed heavy traffic and security presence.
In attendance were National Chairman of the APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu-led NWC; Tinubu’s running mate, Senator Kashim Shettima; Chairman of the Progressive Governors Forum, Atiku Bagudu; Deputy Director General of the PCC, Adams Oshimhole; Kano State Governor, Abdullahi Ganduje; Plateau State Governor, Simon Lalong and Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila among others.
Though spokesperson for the Presidential Campaign Council, Festus Keyamo, told journalists after the meeting that a ‘region’ had been selected for the campaign launch, he was unwilling divulge it.
He said, “We have agreed on the region to begin the campaign but I am not going to say that now. We have also addressed all the basic issues because we want to carry the leaders of the party along.
For now, no date has been chosen (for PCC inauguration). But we will announce that sooner than you think.”
Governor David Umahi of Ebonyi state has issued a response to those questioning the health of All Progressives Congress presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu.
Fielding questions on Channels TV’s Sunrise Daily today October 3, Umahi added that those asking such questions are being petty.
He also said that Tinubu’s workout video which is trending online, was taken without his knowledge.
Umahi said;
“Nobody is totally well, and nobody is totally sick; this is one point. Another point is that Nigerians are petty; some of us are petty.
“A man doing his workout, you know, is being videoed and circulated on social media without his knowledge.
“And so, a man that has life does not need to show any proof of life. Asiwaju has life, and he doesn’t need to show any proof of life, and you can see that.
“I think we should concentrate on tangibles because life is like being on the bus, and you don’t know where the next bus stop is.
“Some of the people talking about the health of the leaders of the country don’t even know when their bus stop is coming. So, we should rely on tangibles. Every life and health rests in the hand of God; that is how I look at it.”
The National Association of Seadogs (Pyrates Confraternity) has said the viral video mocking the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu is being taken out of context for political gains.
The organization condemned in very strong terms those making political gains out of the video, insisting that it is apolitical and does not have any preferred candidate for the upcoming 2023 presidential elections.
Recall that on Monday, August 8, a video of members of the Confraternity holding a procession in which they could be seen gyrating to an anti-Tinubu song and poked fun at Tinubu for a speech he made in June in Abeokuta, Ogun State, where he asked that power should be handed over to him.
Tinubu had in his speech in Abeokuta said; ”Emi lo kan’, which means ”It’s my turn’.
During his speech he also mentioned how he consoled President Muhammadu Buhari after he had lost the presidential election thrice and pledged to make him President come 2015.
The lyrics of the song the pyrates sang read;
”Hand dey shake, leg dey shake, Baba wey no well, e de shout emi lo kan (Hands are shaking, legs are shaking.
A sick old man is shouting ‘it’s my turn’). Emi lo kan (2ce), Baba wey no well, him dey shout emi lokan (It’s my turn (2ce), a sick old man is shouting ‘it’s my turn’”
They sang Some Nigerians including Professor Wole Soyinka who is one of the founders of the group found the lyrics distasteful.
Soyinka in a statement condemned the song and said it was ”frankly appalling”.
In a statement titled ‘Setting the Records Straight’, the NAS Capoon, Abiola Owoaje, said the organization had a procession to round up its 46th Annual General Meeting as its customary in all events in like manner for the past 46 years, adding that no aspect of its procession was political.
“Part of the annual general meeting was the review of our entire advocacy, humanitarian and operational activities for the year.
This, then, as usual, culminated in a celebratory procession, an aspect of this yearly process that we have undertaken for the last 46 years.
In our view, it proceeded without event, until this extremely limited video made this appearance. Quite contrary to the manner in which certain aspects of the video are being portrayed, no aspect of this procession or the event itself was political.
Rather it was the typical climax of our annual general meeting. At no time in the history of this organization has this event, or indeed any of our events had any slanted political leanings” he said
Owoaje clarified that the organization does not mock or discriminate against the physical condition of any person as it also has members who are physically challenged.
“We must stress that we are apolitical. As an organisation, we have never had a preferred candidate in any political elections including the upcoming 2023 general elections.
We have members who belong to different political parties and are absolutely free to support any candidate of their choice. It is most unfortunate that political capital is being made of this with interpretations that are totally at variance with the philosophy of the Pyrates Confraternity.
Unequivocally, we condemn this in very strong terms. We understand that political merchants desperately seeking media mileage are all over the place misinforming and twisting events to suit their political agenda.
However, we wish to re -emphasise that the National Association of Seadogs (Pyrates Confraternity) are not supporting or backing any candidate for the office of the President or any other office in the 2023 general elections and beyond.
As an organisation in tune with disadvantaged and voiceless people, we are committed to the enthronement of a just society in which no one is discriminated against based on tribe, religion, gender or disability.
We are against conventions that are moribund. We have always stood for Humanistic ideals, comradeship and chivalry. Nothing that has happened can and will change that posture.
We are determined to continue to use our social programmes, intellectual platforms and our compelling songs to advocate for good governance and accountability!”
A lawsuit seeking the disqualification of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the presidential candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC), from contesting the 2023 elections for allegedly presenting the forged certificate will be heard by a Federal High Court in Abuja on September 7.
The Plaintiffs, who are four chieftains of the APC asked the court for an order disqualifying Tinubu from contesting or participating in the forthcoming 2023 presidential election as a candidate of All Progressives Congress on the grounds of the information he supplied to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as the presidential candidate of the party.
In a 33-paragraph affidavit in support of the suit deposed to by Ibiang Miko Ibiang, the plaintiffs claimed that Tinubu falsely swore to an affidavit in 1999 in which he claimed to have attended St. Paul Aroloya Children Home School, Ibadan -1958-64 and Government College, Ibadan -1965-68 and presented same to INEC.
They also claimed that after this turned out to be false, Tinubu allegedly tried to conceal this by refusing to provide any information whatsoever relating to his primary and Secondary schools in his INEC form for the 2023 election.
Counsel to the Plaintiff, Goddy Uche, told the court that substituted service has become necessary because all attempts to serve the presidential candidate have proved abortive as he cannot be reached.
Justice Ahmed Mohammed who ruled on the case, ordered that the Court process be served on the National Secretariat of APC and that such service shall be deemed as having been properly served on Bola Tinubu. He further adjourned the case to September 7. The plaintiffs had posed the following questions for determination;
Whether having regard to the provision of sections 1 (3); 4(1)and 2; 14(1),(2)(a), and (c)and 42(1)(a)and (b) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,1999 (as amended), the provision of section 29(5)of the Electoral Act, 2022 as enacted by the 4th Defendant which modified the provision section 31(5) of the Electoral Act,2010(as amended) is not ultra vires the 4th Defendant and therefore unconstitutional, null, void and of no effect whatever.
Whether having regard to the decision of the Supreme Court in the case Modibbo Vs Usman (2020) 3 NWLR(PT.1712)470 and the provision of section 137(1)(j) the 3rd Defendant has not presented a forged certificate to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) the 1st Defendant and thereby disqualified from participating in the forthcoming 2023 Presidential General Election.
They also prayed that upon the favourable determination of the above questions, for the following reliefs:
A declaration of the Court that the provision of section 29(5) of the Electoral Act,2022 is ultra vires the 4th Defendant and unconstitutional, null, void, and of no effect whatsoever.
An order of the Court striking out/striking down the provision of section 29(5) of the Electoral Act 2022 from the Electoral Act and the body of extant laws of the Federal Republic of Nigeria same being ultra vires the 4th and 5th Defendants, unconstitutional, null, void and of no effect whatsoever.
A declaration that the 3rd Defendant has presented a forged certificate to the Independent National Electoral Commission for the purpose of seeking to be elected into the office of President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
A declaration that the 3rd defendant stands disqualified from participating in the 2023 presidential election as a candidate of the 2nd Defendant has presented a forged certificate to the Independent National Electoral Commission for the purpose of seeking to be elected into the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
An order disqualifying the 3rd Defendant from contesting or participating in the forthcoming 2023 Presidential general election as a candidate of the 2nd Defendant.
Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu of Ondo State has revealed what the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is currently going through in his quest for a substantive running mate for the 2023 presidential election.
The Governor pointed out that there are so many factors being considered in picking Tinubu’s running mate, thereby making it somewhat difficult for the former Lagos State Governor.
Not mentioning the issue of religion which has formed much of the public debate among Nigerians, Governor Akeredolu centred his argument on zone, loyalty and the area with the highest votes, as he listed the factors that have left the APC flagbearer racking his brain.
Featuring on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Monday evening, the Governor explained that, “The circumstance Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu has found himself now, that’s a major of what I’ll call ground-wetting. For instance, he’ll not pick from the South. So he’s left to make a choice from the North.
“Because he’s from the South he won’t pick from South-East or South-South, because he’s from the South-West he has to pick from the North.
“And when you look at the North, a lot of factors will have to come into play. Some will say ‘pick from North West’ But North West, that’s where the President now comes from.
“Will they have a second bite whether as vice or anything? Some will argue ‘why not pick from the North East?’ That’s a factor to be considered.
“Others can argue, ‘why not pick from North Central?’ So, another factor to be considered is ‘okay, where do you get votes?’
“So many factors, but under these circumstances, I think he is probably left with North Central and North East probably because so many factors can come into play.
“So, in determining who you pick at the end of the day, you have to look at loyalty. Will this person be loyal or will he be there to undermine you? Those are issues you’ll have to consider very seriously.”
The northern region is the stronghold of the ruling APC, as it governs 14 of its 19 states. But this is the first time the party is presenting a southerner as its presidential flag bearer.
What fate awaits the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, in the northern states in the 2023 election?
The question is of interest to political observers because the region is the stronghold of the ruling party, as it governs 14 of its 19 states, but this is the first time the party is presenting a southerner as its flag bearer.
Mr Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, polled 1,271 votes at the APC primary on June 8, defeating 13 aspirants after seven others stepped down for him at the convention ground.
He will slug it out with the candidates of 16 other parties in the February 25, 2023, general election, including Atiku Abubakar of the People Democratic Party (PDP), Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People Party (NNPP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party.
Patient courtship
Before declaring his intention to run for president in January, Mr Tinubu had been the leader of the APC in the South-west zone, where he had been influential since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999. However, northern state governors provided the most critical support that helped him to win the party’s nomination.
This did not come as a surprise to close observers because Mr Tinubu in recent years had taken deliberate steps to build alliances with political leaders in the region.
Initially, some northern APC governors did not support Mr Tinubu because of their own ambitions. But he eventually won them over, helped no doubt by the position of a majority of them that the South should produce the successor to President Muhammadu Buhari next year. But he had also deliberately courted many of them over the years.
One of the governors, Muhammad Badaru of Jigawa, who eventually stepped down for Mr Tinubu at the primary, narrated how the former Lagos governor helped him to win his election as governor.
Mr Tinubu announced his presidential bid in January, after numerous engagements with northern leaders. He was the Guest Speaker at the prestigious Arewa House lecture series in Kaduna last year, an event he preceded with visits to Kano and Katsina states within a week.
While in Katsina, last March 24, he donated N50 million to victims of a fire disaster at the city’s central market.
Speaking on the occasion, Mr Tinubu said: “For the fire disaster, I am personally most touched because I am a son of a market woman leader. My late mother was the president of the Nigerian Men and Women Market Association.
“We, together with my mother, had been to Katsina several times for political rallies and Durbar. Coming to Katsina, it is not only to celebrate but to share the joy and sorrow, particularly in this period where Nigerians need each other both in pain and joy. We will continue to pray that Nigeria will be peaceful,” the former governor said.
Arewa House Lecture
Speaking at the opening of the 2021 annual Arewa House Lectures, which he chaired in Kaduna on March 27 that year, Mr Tinubue called for massive investment in job creation to address the economic and security challenges of the region.
The theme of the lecture was “Reduction of the Cost of Governance for Inclusive Growth and Youth Development in Northern Nigeria in a Post- COVID-19 Era”.
He said the government must think outside of the box in finding solutions to the challenges posed by unemployment. According to him, frustration and despair among the youth were largely caused by chronic poverty and the breakdown of social institutions.
“Building vital infrastructures such as irrigation and water catchment systems will help agriculture, arrest desertification, and provide jobs.
“Another readily available area primed for investment is the agro-allied industry which, for the northern region, is particularly advantageous,” he said.
On the herder/farmer dispute, he said the government “must appreciate that martial security measures alone will not suffice.
“We cannot resolve this problem by holding on to one-dimensional answers. We must all be dispassionate in our search for solutions. These challenges are multi-faceted and so the solutions must be.
“The issue of insecurity, unemployment, and extremism has many things to do with governance, over time. We must tackle our deep and widespread poverty.
“If we limit the government’s role under the erroneous assumption that government spending is intrinsically unproductive, then we tether ourselves to failure.
“The development of any populous nation has always been dependent on the ability of the government to allocate sufficient funds to projects and programs that create and encourage enduring growth and employment,” Mr Tinubu said.
The 12th Colloquium in Kano.
Mr Tinubu held the 12th edition of his annual Colloquium in Kano in 2021 under the theme, “Our Common Bond, Our Common Wealth.” The colloquium is a lecture series held on his birthdays since 2009, two years after he left government.
At the event, during which he inaugurated the headquarters of the state’s anti-graft agency, Mr Tinubu lauded Governor Abdullahi Ganduje for strengthening the anti-corruption institutions in his state.
He also preached peace, unity, and tolerance among Nigerians and then held a closed-door meeting with clerics and the five first-class emirs in the state at the Government House in Kano.
These engagements probably contributed to the support that the former Lagos governor received from northern state governors at the APC National Convention. But now that he is the party’s presidential candidate, has he done enough to connect with the voters in the region?
Courtship
Habu Muhammad, a former head of Aminu Kano Centre for Democratic Research and Training (Mambayya House), a research and training unit of the Bayero University, Kano, said Mr Tinubu’s visits to Northwest states were in promotion of his ambition to succeed President Buhari come 2023.
“Tinubu is an astute politician who believes that with the support from Kano in particular and the northern states, he will actualise his ambition of becoming the next Nigerian president,” Mr Muhammad, a professor of political science, told PREMIUM TIMES.
He said if Mr Tinubu’s tours of northern states were solely to preach unity, he should have gathered southern leaders to preach the same message to them too.
“Since he started celebrating his birthday in 2009, I can’t recall the celebration taking place in the north. Holding it in the north now is political. But there is nothing wrong with that because it is politics. In politics, someone must indicate interest and that person must lobby for support. Tinubu has political relevance, he has people and supporters across Nigeria. In the end, Nigerians will decide whether he is the right person or not,” Mr Muhammad said.
However, Mr Muhammad warned that Mr Tinubu may encounter challenges in the north if leaders in his South-west region continue to be silent about the alleged persecution of Hausa/Fulani groups over the farmers/herders crisis.
He said Mr Tinubu himself had not spoken out against the attacks on northern businesses and Fulani communities in his home region.
But the candidate faces other challenges as well.
Kano: NNPP’s challenge, Ganduje’s record
Kano is the most populous state in Northern Nigeria. The APC got its highest votes, about 1.9 million, in the state in 2015, a feat it also repeated in the 2019 presidential election.
However, Governor Ganduje appears to have mismanaged the party in Kano. Many of its important stakeholders have left the party in anger and frustration. This may affect the support that the APC presidential candidate may get in the state at the poll.
A former governor Ibrahim Shekarau, a former presidential aide, Kawu Sumaila; and a former federal lawmaker, Abdulmumini Jibrin; are among those who have defected to the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) brought to the state by a former governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, who is also running for president.
Both Messrs Sumaila and Jibrin are formidable politicians in the Kano South Senatorial district, which has 15 local government areas (LGAs). Rano LGA, which had 71,641 in the last elections, will be one of the battlefields in the zone for the APC, NNPP and PDP.
Other council areas in Kano South like Kiru, Wudil, Gaya, Tudun Wada, and Doguwa will also see close contests. However, the Chief Whip of the House of Representatives, Alhassan Ado-Doguwa, has vowed to deliver the Kano South Senatorial district to the APC as he did previously.
Luckily for the APC too, Barau Jibrin, the senator representing Kano North District, which has 14 LGAs, remains in the party. Mr Jibrin, who is the Senate Appropriations Committee chairman and is seeking re-election, and Abubakar Kabir, who is the member representing Bichi in the House of Representatives, are popular in the district. With the influence of the Emir of Bichi, Nasiru Ado-Bayero, who is an in-law to President Buhari, the APC may sweep the poll in this zone.
But the ruling party will face stiff opposition in Kano Central Senatorial District where Messrs Kwankwaso and Shekarau hail from. Mr Kwankwaso’s followers (members of the Kwankwasiyya Movement) are numerous in the city.
The unresolved APC crisis emanating from the primary election in some of the metropolitan council areas, like Fagge, is an added advantage to the opposition parties.
The member representing Fagge at the House of Representatives, Aminu Suleiman, won the APC primary election despite complaints of alleged poor representation made against him by some residents. Mr Suleiman, however, dismissed the allegation as politically motivated, saying he secured hundreds of jobs for his constituents.
In addition, many APC supporters are disenchanted over the poor performance of the APC-led federal government in the last seven years.
Overall, APC needs a lot of hard work to harvest the usual humongous votes it has been getting in Kano central. However, many residents commend the Ganduje administration for executing landmark projects in the Kano metropolis.
The NNPP is unlikely to win in Kano but may play the spoiler for Mr Tinubu and his opponent of the other major party, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP.
Keen contests
The contests in other Northwest states will be keen between the APC and PDP. The ruling party will likely maintain its grip on Kaduna and Katsina states. In the former, Governor Nasir El-Rufa’i is widely adjudged to have performed well but the animosity against him in the southern part of the state means the PDP also remains strong in the state.
In Katsina, the home state of President Buhari, despite the challenges of insecurity, Governor Masari has also executed many projects and addressed the security challenges in rural communities.
But Sokoto and Kebbi will be battlefields for the two parties.
The APC has bright chances in the North Central Niger State, as the structure of the PDP seems to have collapsed in the state over the years. A former governor, Babangida Aliyu, who ought to be the leader of the party in the state, has been silent, perhaps because he is battling corruption charges.
With the absence of the PDP structure, APC chieftains in banditry-prone Shiroro, Munya, Rafi, and other council areas are noticeably supporting the victims of attacks. Those politicians are more likely to influence the elections even in communities displaced by terrorists.
The APC states and APC ruling states
The APC controls 14 states in the North. Yobe, Borno, and Zamfara are traditional APC states – the PDP has not won a governorship election in the three states since the beginning of the Fourth Republic, and there is a high tendency that Mr Tinubu will win those states hands down.
But the APC presidential candidate will suffer from the perceived sins of some of the governors in states like Jigawa and Kebbi, who have either been accused of hijacking the party structures or abandoning governance for their personal businesses.
Abdullahi Tsoho, a labour union leader and governorship candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in Jigawa, said over 9,000 teachers retired from the state civil service in the last seven years, but the government has not recruited to fill the vacancies.
Instead, Mr Tsoho said the government has focused on building new classroom blocks without teachers to teach.
Even his party members had complained that Governor Badaru has never done empowerment programmes for residents in the last seven years, while farmers also complained that farming inputs, machines and agrochemicals he reportedly imported from China were never sold to them at subsidised rates. Some farmers lamented that farm inputs are cheaper in the open market than from the state-controlled Agricultural Supply Company (JASCO), managed by a confidant of the governor.
Also, farmers alleged that Mr Badaru’s role as head of the presidential task force on fertiliser did not benefit farmers in his state as the price and availability of fertilizer in Jigawa remain a concern.
However, unlike in Kebbi where aggrieved APC members defected to the opposition PDP, they have refused to leave in Jigawa. A party member said many of them are instead waiting for the elections to pay back for the alleged wrongdoings of the governor.
Meanwhile, a former lawmaker, Farouk Aliyu, is challenging the governor in court over the alleged imposition of candidates of the party.
Thus, the unresolved party crisis and perceived political sins of the Jigawa governor may affect the support for his party’s presidential candidate in the state.
50/50 in the Northeast – Don
A professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Maiduguri, Umara Ibrahim, agreed that the APC presidential candidate may win three of the six states in the North East.
He told PREMIUM TIMES that it would be difficult for the PDP to win in Borno and Yobe states and that APC, being in government in Gombe, is also most likely to take the state. The PDP is in government in Adamawa, Taraba and Bauchi states.
The don said the APC may gain more influence in the zone if it picks its vice-presidential candidate from the zone.
Mr Ibrahim said Atiku has a large following in Bauchi State, which would make the state difficult to win for the presidential candidate of the APC. He added that though the governor, Bala Mohammed, lost in the PDP presidential primary, he will still support his party to win the state.
Muslim-Muslim
Mr Tinubu, a Southern Muslim, is under pressure from Nigerian Christian leaders to pick a Northern Christian as his running mate. But Sa’idu Dukawa, a professor of Political Science at Bayero University, Kano, said fielding a Muslim-Muslim ticket will serve his electoral interest better in conservative Northern states.
Mr Dukawa believes that Mr Tinubu’s choice of a running mate will influence the support he gets from the average voters in Kano and other conservative Muslim states in the region.
“If Tinubu picks a Muslim running mate from the North, the APC may win all the states it now controls, and even get additional states. But if they chose otherwise, the party may lose some of their states. There is no doubt about this because religion will definitely influence the voting pattern,” Mr Dukawa said.
He said the predominantly Muslim population in the North is now interpreting the calls by religious groups on Mr Tinubu not to pick a Muslim running mate as a plot against their religion.
“The simple arithmetic is that only three of the 19 Northern states are being governed by Christian governors. The Muslim population will want one of their own to represent them as the vice president,” he added.
However, he said Mr Tinubu may also face a backlash from this arrangement with the majority of Christians not voting for him both in the North and in the South. The don said the aim of any political party is to win an election, and that politicians will always adopt the option they think will make them win.
The APC has named Kabir Masari, a Muslim from Katsina State, as his running mate but many believe he is not the final choice and would be substituted before July 15.
That notwithstanding, Mr Dukawa said voters should always consider competence over religion and vote for the candidate that will address the security and economic challenges, irrespective of their regions and religions.
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